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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Odds & Picks

There should be no debate about which division was the toughest in the AFC this season. While the East produced three teams with winning records (Dolphins, Patriots, Jets) and the South featured the No. 1 seed Titans and the perennially good Colts, the last two teams standing are both from the AFC North. Bitter rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh will meet in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday January 18, 2009 at 6:30 EST when the teams face off for the third time this season. The Pittsburgh Steelers are listed as 6-point favorites with the total set at 34.

At this point both of these teams likely no each other better than they know themselves, having already faced off twice during the regular season. The Steelers have come out on the winning side of things both times and will be looking to complete the trifecta while the Ravens are hoping that the third time’s the charm. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in the season’s first meeting 23-20 at Heinz Field back on September 29th, but it took the Steelers overtime to do so. Two-and-a-half months later, the teams faced off again in Baltimore with Pittsburgh edging out the Ravens once again 13-9 behind a 10-point fourth quarter rally. The familiarity that these teams have for one another and the level of hatred that they express toward one another had NFL odds makers anticipating another low scoring game.

With as tight as both games have been this season, some might be surprised that the Steelers are laying six points. The most likely reason is because of Pittsburgh’s experience factor. The Steelers won the Super Bowl three seasons ago with many of the same key players that are on this team. Another things odds makers are looking at is how ineffective Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco has been against Pittsburgh’s top rated defense. In the first meeting, Flacco and the Ravens came away with just 140 net passing yards for a 3.9 yards per pass average. The Steelers brought the heat, sacking Flacco five times in that game for 52 yards lost on sacks. In the second meeting, the Steelers defense was even tougher, holding the Ravens to just 90 net passing yards. They handed Flacco a terrible 22.2 passer rating for the game, sacking his twice, intercepting him twice, and holding him to 39.3 percent passing. While the Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL, it has been there offense which has stepped up at the right times to get them to this point. But so far against Pittsburgh, it has not stepped up at those critical junctures. If you think Baltimore and their QB can step it up offensively in the third meeting, bet the Ravens at +6 at BetUS.

Pittsburgh needs an extra pat on the back for advancing last week, since none of the other bye week teams were able to do so. While Pittsburgh has beaten the Ravens, twice, neither game has been anything resembling a walk in the park, and the Steelers only have to look one season in the past to see how difficult it is to beat a team three times. The New York Giants were defeated by the NFC East champion and No. 1 NFC playoff seed Cowboys twice during the 2007 regular, but New York had Dallas figured out in the third meeting and the rest was history. Pittsburgh has relied on its defense all season, but it knows that its offense is going to have to be better to beat the Ravens a third straight time, and they may mean throwing in a couple trick plays. The good news is that the running game came alive last week with Willie Parker easily having his best game of the season, but running on the Chargers and the Ravens are two very different things. If you think Pittsburgh takes down Baltimore for a third time this season and covers the number in the process, bet the Steelers at -6 at BetUS.

Editor’s Note: Do your NFL betting on this game with Jimmy Boyd this Sunday. Jimmy has been dominant in the AFC playoffs, cashing in his 5* AFC Wild Card Game of the Year in round one and his 5* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year last week. Jimmy’s NFL picks will steer you straight once more.

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