2011 San Diego Padres Predictions
The San Diego Padres were almost the story of the 2010 season. A disappointing collapse, however, kept them from winning the NL West, which opened the door for San Francisco and the rest is history.
Still, the Padres have plenty to be proud of. They won 90 games last year after winning just 75 in 2009. Unfortunately, it will be difficult for them to build on their 2010 campaign without three-time All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres are listed at +3500 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: The Padres relied on quality starting pitching and solid defense in 2010 and will have to do so again this season. Mat Latos emerged as the ace of the staff. He went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and set a major league record by allowing two runs of less in 15 straight starts.
Southpaw Clayton Richard and righties Aaron Harang and Dustin Moseley are expected to join Latos in the rotation with Wade LeBlanc and Cory Luebke fighting for the fifth spot.
Richard went 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA last year. Harang is excited about the opportunity to pitch for his hometown team.
While a number of relievers were moved this offseason, the Padres kept the trio of Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams and Heath Bell. Bell is coming off a season in which he converted 47 of 50 save opportunities to lead the league. Gregersen led the bigs with 40 holds.
Lineup: First baseman Brad Hawpe, second baseman Orlando Hudson, shortstop Jason Bartlett and third baseman Chase Headley are expected to take the infield most days for the Padres this season.
The Padres are hoping Bartlett can return to his 2009 All-Star form, which isn’t likely now that he will be swinging in pitcher-friendly Petco half the season. However, he and Hudson should provide upgrades defensively over Miguel Tejada and David Eckstein.
Hawpe should get the first crack at first base but could be replaced by Jorge Cantu if he can’t hit. Kyle Blanks is the first baseman of the future, but he has been set back by Tommy John surgery. Hopefully Headley is starting to come around. He had a nice year with 11 home runs and 58 RBIs but more power is expected.
Will Venable, Ryan Ludwick and Cameron Maybin are projected to take the outfield. San Diego is hopeful that Maybin can finally realize the potential that made him the 10th overall pick in the 2005 draft. Venable had 13 home runs and 51 RBIs in 2010 despite battling a back injury. Ludwick didn’t make the transition to Petco well. He hit just .211 with the Padres after hitting. 281 with St. Louis.
Nick Hundley doesn’t give the Padres a lot at the plate but gives them plenty behind him. He did an excellent job of handling the pitching staff last year.
Prediction – 4th Place NL West: It’s going to take a year or two for all the prospects gained in the Gonzalez deal to make their way to the bigs, which means San Diego is likely a year or two away from getting back in contention. The pitching and defense should remain solid but this team will miss the 30 home runs and 100 RBIs from the bat of Gonzalez. The Padres are listed at +1000 to win the NL West.
