2012 Seattle Mariners Predictions
After winning 85 games in 2009, the Seattle Mariners expected to challenge for an AL West title in 2010. Expectations grew even larger once Cy Young winner Cliff Lee was added to a rotation already featuring Felix Hernandez. Despite these two aces, and a $100 million payroll, the M’s won only 61 games and finished dead last in the division. The offense was the biggest reason for Seattle’s struggles. It managed only 513 runs and hit just .236. Things were so bad for the M’s in 2010 that Lee was dealt for prospects, manager Don Wakamatsu was shown the door and Ken Griffey Jr. decided to call it a career.
Things were better in 2011 but not by much. The Mariners finished 67-95 and took last place in the division for the sixth time in eight seasons. A lack of offense continued to be the biggest issue as they finished last in the majors with 556 runs.
Projected Pitching
Starting rotation: Felix Hernandez (R) – King Felix followed up his 2011 Cy Young campaign by going 14-14 with a 3.47 ERA. Over the past three years, he leads the AL in ERA (2.73) and quality starts (81).
Jason Vargas (L) – Vargas is coming off a solid season in which he went 10-13 with a 4.25 ERA and three shutouts.
Hisashi Iwakuma (R) – The Mariners are counting on him to strengthen the back of the rotation. He had a 2.42 ERA in Japan last year.
Blake Beavan (R) -Beavan was one of the key acquisitions in the 2010 Cliff Lee deal. He went 5-6 with a 4.27 ERA while getting his feet wet last season.
Hector Noesi (R) – Noesi, who came over in the Michael Pineda deal, appeared in 30 games for the Yankees in 2011 and posted a 4.47 ERA. He struck out 45 in 56.1 innings of work.
Closer: Brandon League (R) – David Aardsma’s injuries opened the door for League in 2011 and he took full advantage. He converted 37 of 42 save chances and made the All-Star team
Projected Lineup
Miguel Olivo (Catcher) – His .253 on-base percentage was next-to-last in the AL, but he led the Mariners in home runs (19) and RBIs (62).
Justin Smoak (First Base) – Smoak, the centerpiece of the Lee trade, disappointed in his first full season. The switch-hitter batted just .234 with 15 home runs and 55 RBIs. The M’s desperately need him to be more consistent this year.
Dustin Ackley (Second Base) – The 24-year-old has only played 90 games in the majors and is already considered the best hitter on the team. He batted .273 with 16 doubles, seven triples, six round trippers and 36 RBIs in just 333 at bats.
Kyle Seager (Third Base) – He appears to have the edge in terms of landing the the job at third base after hitting .258 with three home runs and 13 RBIs in 182 at bats. Alex Liddi will get a long look as well. He blasted 30 home runs in Triple-A.
Brendan Ryan (Shortstop) – Ryan is on the field for defense. He only batted .248 with three home runs and 39 RBIs last year.
Trayvon Robinson (Left Field) – He batted just .210 with two home runs and 14 RBIs in 44 games last season, but the M’s are holding out hope that he can find his Triple-A swing. He hit .293 with 26 round trippers in 100 games at Triple-A Albuquerque.
Franklin Gutierrez (Center Field) – He appeared to be a rising star in 2009 when he hit .283 with 18 homers but has been slowed by irritable bowel syndrome the past two seasons. Team doctors believe they have the issue under control, which means Gutierrez could be destined for a big year.
Ichiro Suzuki (Right Field) – After 10 straight seasons of batting .300 and hammering out 200 hits, Ichiro took a step back, batting .272 with 184 hits.
Jesus Montero (Designated Hitter) – We could certainly see Mike Carp here but I really like what I saw from Montero last season. He batted .328 in 18 regular-season games for the Yankees and then went 2-for-2 in the playoffs.
Prediction – 3rd Place AL West: The Angels and Rangers are in a league of their own, but the M’s should be able to hold off Oakland club in full-on rebuilding mode for third place. Odds makers have listed the Mariners at +3000 to win the AL West.