2011 Seattle Mariners Predictions
After winning 85 games in 2009, the Seattle Mariners expected to challenge for an AL West title last season. Expectations grew even larger once Cy Young winner Cliff Lee was added to a rotation already featuring Felix Hernandez. Despite these two aces, and a $100 million payroll, the M’s won only 61 games and finished dead last in the division. The offense was the biggest reason for Seattle’s struggles. It managed only 513 runs and hit just .236. Things were so bad for the M’s in 2010 that Lee was dealt for prospects, manager Don Wakamatsu was shown the door and Ken Griffey Jr. decided to call it a career. The Seattle Mariners are listed at +10000 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: Hernandez has arrived as one of the elite pitchers in baseball, as evidenced by last season’s AL Cy Young award. King Felix went 13-12, despite a constant lack of run support, and posted a major league-best 2.27 ERA. He also tied for the most strikeouts (232).
Southpaw Jason Vargas more than held his own in 2010, nearly reaching double-digit wins on a bad team while posting a 3.78 ERA.
It gets pretty shaky for the M’s behind these two. A combination of Doug Fister, Michael Pineda, David Pauley, Chris Seddon and Erik Bedard will make up the final three rotation slots. Pineda has the biggest upside of these five. He looked to have top of the rotation stuff in Double-A and Triple-A stops.
The bullpen doesn’t offer much stability behind these guys either. The Seattle pen carried a 4.23 ERA in 2010. David Aardsma is expected to get the ball in the ninth again this season. His 31 saves were respectable, but it’s a bit of a concern that his ERA shot up nearly a run from where it was in 2009.
Lineup: The Mariners have the personnel to support the pitching staff with a solid defense. However, it hasn’t yet been determined where the offense will come from.
Ichiro Suzuki is one of the best leadoff hitters in major league history in my opinion. He has recorded 200-plus hits in 10-plus seasons. It should also be mentioned that he was won 10 straight Gold Gloves. Franklin Gutiérrez and Michael Saunders are likely to take the other two outfield spots. The glove of Gutiérrez is unquestioned, but the M’s need a lot more out of his bat. He hit just .245 last season. Seattle also appears ready to make Saunders the everyday left fielder given Milton Bradley’s drop off.
First baseman Justin Smoak, second baseman Brendan Ryan, shortstop Jack Wilson and third baseman Chone Figgins are the projected starters on the infield. Smoak is considered the organizations top hitting prospect. Ryan is trying to bounce back strong in Seattle following horrendous year in St. Louis. Wilson fields the shortstop position extremely well but can’t hit to save his life. The M’s desperately need more offensive production from Figgins this season. He hit just one home run and drove in only 35 total runs a season ago.
Miguel Olivo and Adam Moore will get the reps behind home plate and Jack Cust is expected to fill the DH slot. Cust hit .272 with 13 home runs and 52 RBIs in 112 games for Oakland last year.
Prediction – 4th Place AL West: The last time Seattle won 61 games (2008) it rebounded to win 85 the following year. It’s hard to imagine that scenario playing out again, however. The M’s have some work to do before they are ready to win their first division title since 2001. Baseball odds makers have listed the Mariners at +1600 to win the AL West.
