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You are not going to
become a professional if you do not get a grasp of
sports betting money management. The science of
investing in sporting events has left many handicappers
and professional gamblers raking in the cash from their
offshore sportsbooks.
I say investing because a sound
sports handicapping
approach supplemented with good money management skills
virtually takes all of the gambling out of sports betting.
Sure, you are still placing bets and “gambling”,
but with the right tools behind you, year in and year out
you can make money in this field just like we do. Betting
on sports is not a 50-yard dash sprint, but a very long
distance race and the sports better has to look at this
way. There will
be many ups and downs along the way and this is why a
proper money management system must be in place before you
take your first piece of the action.
Today, I hope to
help you learn a few tips and tricks that will save you
money in the long run.
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One
may ask the question, If you can pick a greater percentage
of winners than losers, why do you need a money management
plan? Well the answer is simple. If you can pick more
winners than losers, say 55%, but do not have a money
plan, you will lose. Plain and simple. Most betters agree
that a set unit price per play is that way to go. I am not
going to go into the Kelly Criterion in this article,
because I believe that if a capper has plays that he
believes has a greater value than what the oddsmaker
posted, then it is up to him to make the decision to rate
his plays accordingly.
This article is aimed for betters, who can pick the
right games yet still lose money, the beginning better,
and the better who uses a service to pick games and still
loses money.
Lets
take the NBA for this example and we will assume that we
lay –110 on all sides and totals. Let us also assume that
we can hit 55%, or we use a service that picks 55%
winners. Now lets take a look at what the ideal should be.
Say we have 438 bets, including sides and totals for the
year. That is 241 winners and 147 losing tickets. We
played at a set unit per play, a 5000-dollar bankroll at
2% per unit would be 100 per bet. For this example I am
going to use 110 to include the juice. This equals 100 X
241 = $24,100 dollars won, minus 110 X 147 = $16,170. So
$24,100 – $16,170 = $7,930. This equates to approximately
79.3 units won and quite a nice profit.
Now
lets take a better that starts out using a money
management system, but then after a great winning streak,
decides to vary his bets and increase them.
Say he starts out the season going 62-40@ 120 per
play, 62 X 100 = 6200, minus 40 X 110 = 4000, $2200 up. So
Mr. No-Money-Management, No Discipline decides to get
greedy and up his bets to 5%, 250 per play, to capitalize
on his exquisite handicapping skills and really cash in.
Now we all know the he is not going to stay hitting 61%
for the entire season, so he hits a bad losing streak.
Going 15-25 on his next 40 bets, even though for the
season, 77-65 ( 54.22%), he is still above the required
win percentage to win money, 52.38%. But going 15-25
translates into the following:
15 X 227 = 3405, minus 25 X 250 = 6250, for a net
of NEGATIVE 2,845, and going negative for the season. If
he would have kept his original unit price of 100 per
play, he would have won 1500 and lost 2750 on his bad run
of 40 wagers, however, for the season he would still be
positive, not negative.
This
is just one example of why, even though you can pick 55%
winners, you still must have your head in the right place
regarding money management. If not, a bad streak can wipe
you out. In the last example, the better wanted to
increase his profits, he got greedy, he was looking for a
50-yard dash, and look what ended up happening. Went broke
and fell out of the race. So he has to play the rest of
the season not even starting over, but starting negative,
and chances are this type of better will increase his unit
price again, to get himself out of a hole, when in fact he
is just digging it much deeper. On paper, it is easy to
see and understand, but doing it in the real world is much
different. In all of my time spent in this industry, the
number one thing I have learned has got to be patience. It
is a must. Without it you will crumble. You have got to
have the will to sit there throughout a losing streak,
understanding that you handicapping does not suck, and
that losing streaks happen to everyone. The point of 1 to
2 % unit of your bankroll is so that when losing streaks
happen, you will not blow your whole bankroll. You need
your unit to be small enough that you can go on an
extended losing streak, and not get wiped out.
Even
picking winners is not going to make you money. For a lot
of folks, they believe that is all they have to do. I am
sure every sports better out there knows one, if not many
of these types of people. I believe the root of it is
greed and lack of patience. Take a look again at my first
example, the guy who picked his 55%, and stayed with a
solid money program the whole way through. A profit of
7930 off of a 5000 bankroll. That is a return of 158.6% on
your money. Let me say that again, a return of 158.6% on
your money. If that isn’t enough you for, then I suggest
you look into a different industry.
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