Sports Betting Myths
Most square bettors think that there are certain myths in the sports betting community which explains outcomes that they struggle to understand. This article is going to discuss some of these so-called myths and why they are false. Let’s first take a look at a common misconception about the sports betting industry.
Sports bettors love to think that they are going up against the sportsbooks with each wager. They feel satisfaction when winning a wager; because these people think that they just defeated their bookie. Conversely, they become upset after losing a wager, feeling that their book just stole their money. However, these ideas are skewed philosophies. When a wager is placed, the bettor is essentially going up against a similar bettor with the opposite opinion, not the sports books, as bookmakers are only the medium between the two people. The books only interest is taking the vigorish difference between the two bets, as this small percentage is their profit from the transaction. This difference is why most wagers payout anywhere from -105 to -110, instead of even money. Let’s examine another betting misconception.
Some bettors, instead of spending time analyzing a game, try to get inside of the head of lines makers when deciding which side to take. These people typically make a statement like the following: “70% of the money is on team A, but yet they haven’t moved the line. The books must know something that I don’t.” There is some truth to this statement, but no where near as much as the betting public thinks. A variety of reasons could exist explaining why a book wouldn’t adjust the line in that type of situation. One situation could be that they are taking 70% of the money, but the amount wagered on that team isn’t enough to require a line move. If the book doesn’t have many large wagers on that team, then they want to stay with a line they think is strong, thus reducing their risk of taking heavy wagers on the other team. Trying to get inside the heads of the line makers is a somewhat popular method of some handicappers. However, my philosophy is slightly different from the average handicapper. In my opinion, it is much better to analyze the game just like any other and completely ignore trying to figure out which side the books agree with. The lines makers are human, just like bettors, and are incorrect occasionally. I prefer to rely on my own analysis, instead of guessing on someone else’s opinion. This way of thinking creates much more consistent results and long term success. Let’s discuss one more popular sports betting myth, the idea of fixed games.
With the recent conviction of former NBA referee Tim Donaghy, speculation about fixing games has been rampant on sports talk radio and television. People love to discuss the notion that there are forces beyond the public’s knowledge that cause some strange outcomes. The betting public is even more prone to think such thoughts. However, the theory that college and professional sports are fixed is ridiculous. Professional sports leagues go through in-depth background checks with referees. The Tim Donaghy situation is a rare case, and he is the only official in a long time to be associated with such activities. In addition, it would be difficult for an official to influence the outcome, even if attempting to do so. Meanwhile, professional athletes haven’t been involved in fixing of games because of their large salaries. They make so much money that outside sources aren’t able to influence them with financial propositions. College basketball games involving smaller schools are the only situation where a game would have the possibility of being fixed. These students usually have very little money and don’t have an NBA future to look forward to. Therefore, they would be the most susceptible to outside influences offering financial gain. However, game fixing has been almost non-existent in Division I basketball because of the NCAA and the relationship between players and coaches. Overall the thought that certain games and outcomes are fixed is ridiculous.
The public has several sports betting myths that they are sure to be true, as they use these ideas to try and explain the outcome of certain games. However, these myths are false and have no bearing on the outcome of games. The best long term betting strategy is to examine each game as a unique situation, without using false public misconceptions.
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