2011 St. Louis Cardinals Predictions
The St. Louis Cardinals’ chances of winning the NL Central took a big hit when it was discovered that ace Adam Wainwright would miss the entire 2011 season with an elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery. After all, it was the Cardinals’ pitching that carried them while the sticks failed them at times last season. St. Louis won’t be able to rely on its pitching the same way in 2011. The Cards did add Ryan Theriot and Lance Berkman to bolster the lineup, but will it be enough to float the loss of Wainwright? MLB odds makers have listed the Cardinals at +2200 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: The Cards are going to miss Wainwright at the top of the rotation something fierce. Were talking about a guy that has finished in the top three in NL Cy Young voting the last two seasons. Wainwright went 20-11 with a 2.42 ERA in 2010, and he was among the best bets in baseball at Busch Stadium, where he set a major league record with 28 consecutive home quality starts.
Without Wainwright, Chris Carpenter reclaims his role as the team’s No. 1 starter. Carpenter is an impressive 33-13 with a 2.78 ERA the last two years. Jaime Garcia provided St. Louis with a boost last season. He went 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I will be very surprised if he can match those numbers again now that teams have a season worth of tape on him.
Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse should also find their way into the rotation with a fifth starter still to be decided. Westbrook shows promise, posting a 3.48 ERA after arriving from Cleveland last season. Lohse is very much a question mark after missing 2010 following surgery to release tension in his forearm.
Closer Ryan Franklin hasn’t been great, but plenty good enough in the ninth. He has 82 saves since the start of the 2008 season. Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs both have the power arms to take over Franklin’s job if he decides to call it a career after the season.
Lineup: Albert Pujols is arguably the best player in baseball and Matt Holliday is a great sidekick, but it became quite clear that these two needed more help a season ago. The Cards are hoping that Theriot and Berkman will provide that help.
Theriot had a couple nice seasons for Chicago when the Cubs won back-to-back division titles in 2007 and 2008. Berkman has always hit the Cardinals well. Now, they’re hoping he can hit well for them. The five-time All-Star has a .409 career on-base percentage, but it will be interesting to see how he is affected at the plate by playing the outfield. He hasn’t been an everyday outfielder since 2004.
Pujols is coming off a season in which he hit .312 with 42 home runs and 118 RBIs. Already a three-time MVP, he finished runner-up in the NL MVP voting for a fourth time. Hitting behind Pujols, Holliday also hit .312 with 28 round trippers and 103 RBIs.
Centerfielder Colby Rasmus, third baseman David Freese, catcher Yadier Molina and second baseman Skip Schumaker are projected to round out the order. Rasmus is one of the better power hitting center fielders in baseball. He hit 23 bombs last season and led all NL center fielders with a .498 slugging percentage. The health of Freese, whose rookie campaign was cut short by an ankle injury, is critical. He had 31 RBIs in 48 games before going on the shelf. Molina is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. He notched his third straight Gold Glove award last season. The Cards have a decent defensive option in Nick Punto if converted outfielder Schumaker struggles at second.
Prediction – 2nd Place NL Central: St. Louis has the potential to be better offensively if Theriot and Berkman perform to expectations. Unfortunately, I don’t think these additions will be enough to overcome the loss of a Cy Young-caliber starter like Wainwright, especially with the potent Brewers adding ace Zack Greinke. The Cardinals are listed at +220 to win the NL Central.
