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St. Petersburg Bowl Odds – Memphis vs South Florida Football Picks & Predictions
The first annual St. Petersburg Bowl will be this Saturday at Tropicana Field. The inaugural bowl features the South Florida Bulls against the Memphis Tigers. South Florida is playing in their 3rd bowl game in their short stint in Division I football while Memphis earns their 7th overall bowl appearance. South Florida cam into the season ranked in the top 25, and after a red-hot 5-0 start they were even ranked in the top 10 in the nation. Since then the Bulls have lost 5 of 7 and have fallen out of the national spotlight. Memphis had to win 3 of their last 4 games just to be bowl eligible, but they accomplished their goal with wins over Southern Miss, UCF, and Tulane. South Florida is a 12.5 point favorite over Memphis with the total set at 52.5 points.
Memphis features an explosive offense that averages over 200 yards rushing and passing per game this year. The Tigers have gained 432 yards per game this season which has given them a hefty 28 points scored per game. The rushing game has been excellent for the Tigers by averaging 206 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Memphis’s pass offense has been serviceable, but not very potent. They are gaining 227 yards per game through the air, but starting QB Arkelon Hill has completed less than 60% of his passes this year. The Tigers’ main offensive threat is running back Curtis Steele, who is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, gained 1,175 yards this year, and scored 7 touchdowns. Expect South Florida to get a heavy dose of Steele in the St. Petersburg Bowl.
The Tigers have had problems keeping opposing teams out of the endzone this year, allowing 26 points per game at this point in the season. They are allowing 146 yards rushing and 195 yards passing per game, not horrible numbers, but the rushing defense needs improvement fast to compete with South Florida. The defensive secondary allowed just 53% completions against them this year which should help them minimize big plays against a balanced South Florida attack. Oddsmakers have set the line as Memphis +12.5.
South Florida comes in at just under 400 total offensive yards per game, gaining 160 rushing yards and 238 passing yards per game. The Bulls have been effective enough to win 7 of their 12 games this year scoring 26 points per contest, but South Florida struggled mightily down the stretch and didn’t score over 21 points in any one of their last 5 games. Quarterback Matt Grothe is the go-to guy on offense, he throws the ball, but also runs well, leading the team in both passing (2,675 yards) and rushing (508 yards). Grothe’s biggest flaw is that he tries to do too much for South Florida, which has lead to some poor decisions on the field including his 14 interceptions on the year.
Defensively South Florida stayed strong for most of the season. They allowed just 20 points per game and only 291.8 yards of total offense per game. The Bulls are holding opposing running backs to less than 100 yards per game and less than 3 yards per carry. Their secondary has also enjoyed success, keeping opposing QBs in check allowing only 193 passing yards per game at just 53.4% completions. The Bulls will be playing a formidable Memphis offense that can mix in the run and pass very well. Expect the defense to be put to the test. The South Florida Bulls are 12.5 point favorites.
The overall advantage on the stat sheet goes to South Florida, but just how motivated the Bulls are to be in this bowl is unclear. After the Bulls’ 5-0 start, almost every thing since has been a disappointment and you have to think that Memphis, who just barely earned bowl eligibility is more excited to be in this game.
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