Handicapper Steve Merril

New Orleans is playing terrible basketball right now. The Hornets have lost eight of their last ten games, and they haven’t covered a pointspread in their last seven games. And a major reason for their current slide is the fact that this team is missing their two best offensive players in Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic. Those two guys generate so much of New Orleans’ offense that it’s almost impossible for the Hornets to sustain any type of consistent point production without them on the floor. And tonight, New Orleans will be hard-pressed in trading points with the high-flying Suns, especially with Phoenix off a terrible game in their latest.

Phoenix comes into this game off a loss to the Lakers in which the Suns only scored 96 points. They shot just 42.5% (34-80) from the field and a dismal 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land, but they have a valid excuse for the poor offensive performance. Phoenix had six days off heading into that game with the Lakers which was an extremely weird scheduling situation this late in the NBA season. And that much time off in between games is a big negative for a fast-paced team like Phoenix because they lost all of their timing and rhythm from not playing in almost a week.

Tonight will be much different for the Suns as they had yesterday off to get their groove back after the poor offensive effort. Prior to that last game, Phoenix had scored 101 points or more in their previous nine games, and with the New Orleans’ defense allowing 107 points per game on 51.1% shooting over their last five games, the Suns will bounce back strong tonight. Phoenix crushed the Hornets 124-104 on this floor earlier this season, and a similar result will take place tonight.

Play SUNS (-).

Boston comes into today’s game off a pair of games in which their defense did not play well at all. The Celtics allowed 111 points to Memphis in a blowout loss and 103 points to Indiana in a blowout win. They allowed those teams to shoot a combined 51.9% (80-154) from the field and 50% (17-34) from three-point land. That’s not good defense at all, especially for the Celtics. But because they are getting up there in age, Boston has struggled against the young, fast teams in the league. And knowing that allows us to give the Celtics a pass for the poor defense in their last two games.

But today, facing a Cleveland team loaded with veterans, we expect Boston’s defense to look much different here because they won’t be forced into a fast pace. The Cavaliers beat the Celtics by 20 points (108-88) in the last meeting back in late-February. And Boston remembers that game well; it was their worst home loss of the season and one of their poorest defensive efforts of the season. So when we combine that with the fact that the Celtics are off back-to-back terrible defensive games, there’s reason to expect a strong defensive effort today.

Cleveland’s defense is a terrific current form right now; the Cavs have held six straight opponents to 95 points or less and eight of their last nine opponents to 95 points or less. The one game in which they allowed more points came in an overtime game at Toronto which was on the second night of a back-to-back set for Cleveland. Prior to the last meeting sneaking Over the total by a couple of buckets, the Celtics and Cavs played four of the previous five games Under the total with all of those games totaling 184 points or less.

Play UNDER the total.

Most believe that Georgia Tech is in the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens in this game, but there’s still the possibility they get left out due to some of the upsets over the last couple of days. There’s no question that Tech deserves to be in the Big Dance, but why risk it when they can seal their own deal with a win today? They’ve already proven they can beat Duke after winning 71-67 in the first meeting between these two back in early January. Duke then won the second meeting by 19 (86-67), but that was a misleading final as Tech actually out-shot the Blue Devils from two-point range 56.8%-34.2%. But Duke hit a whopping 66.7% (12-18) from three-point land while Tech hit just 25% (3-12) which made the difference in the margin of victory.

Duke is not in good form right now despite winning their first two tournament games. They were in a couple of terrific scheduling spots; they were rested while catching opponents off a game the night before yet Duke could only win their two games by 11 and 3 points (0-2 ATS). And those wins came against two of the worst teams in the ACC, Virginia and Miami Fla. Georgia Tech lays over both of those teams, and the fact that Duke couldn’t win big in those games is definitely a negative sign and a hint they’ll struggle once again in this game.

The Yellow Jackets are extremely talented and they should not be this big of an underdog to anybody on a neutral floor. Their defense has been outstanding in holding opponents to just 66 points per game on an impressive 38.3% shooting from the field. Tech has held their three tournament opponents to just 54, 64, and 58 points which shows they are in very good current form right now. Their defense has played better than Duke’s, yet they are a substantial underdog in this game. With Tech on the bubble and off a misleading loss to Duke in their most recent meeting, there’s some tremendous value in taking this many points with a team that has the talent to beat anybody in the country.

Play GEORGIA TECH (+).