Sugar Bowl

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The third-ranked Florida Gators (11-1) take on the 21st-ranked Louisville Cardinals (10-2) Wednesday, Jan. 2 at 8:30 PM ET in the Sugar Bowl, which takes place in the Superdome in New Orleans, LA. Oddsmakers have listed Florida as a 13.5-point favorite and have set the total at 45.5.

Why Florida Covers

The Gators proved that they are one of the top teams in the country during the regular season with wins over the likes of Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina and Florida State. Louisville’s resume isn’t nearly as impressive.

Florida’s only loss came against seventh-ranked Georgia (11-2) while Louisville was crushed at Syracuse (7-5) and fell at home to Connecticut (5-7).

Florida’s success has stemmed from a defense that is clearly among the nation’s elite. The Gators rank third in the country in scoring defense with 12.9 points allowed per game and fifth in total defense with 282.6 yards allowed per contest.

In addition to being stingy, this unit has been extremely opportunistic. Florida has come up with 29 takeaways and forced three of more in six of its last nine games.

While the defense has been opportunistic, the offense has done a great job of valuing the football. It has committed only 12 turnovers all season and six of those came in one game.

Louisville has been able to control the clock, but it will have a difficult time doing so as it goes up against the best defense it has seen all year.  Consider that Florida is on a 7-0 against the spread run in road/neutral field games versus dominant ball control teams that average 32 minutes of possession time or more and record 21 or more first downs per game. The Gators have won these contests by an average score of 37.9 to 18.7.

Both teams won their regular-season finales both straight up and against the spread.  With this in mind, consider that the Cardinals are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games following an against the spread win while the Gators are 5-1 against the number in their last six games following a game in which they covered the spread.

It is also worth noting that the Gators are 4-0 against the spread in their last four bowl games while the Cardinals are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 bowl games.

Why Louisville Covers

This is a lot of points for Florida to be laying considering how underwhelming it has been on offense. The Gators rank 104th in the country in total offense with only 338.0 yards per game and 76th in scoring with 26.8 points per game.

The Florida offense won’t get anything easy against a Louisville stop unit that ranks 25th in the nation in total defense with 344.8 yards allowed per game and 37th in scoring defense with 23.8 points allowed per contest.

Florida’s opportunistic defense has helped the offense put points on the board by setting it up with good field position. However, the Gators could have trouble getting Louisville to cough it up. The Cardinals have committed just 12 turnovers all season, and they committed one or none in nine games.

Since Charlie Strong took over the program, the Cardinals have been a tough out against elite competition. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 against the spread under his watch versus teams that have won more than 75.0 percent of their games. The Cardinals have won by an average score of 22.7 to 22.3 in these contests.

I have picked Florida to win this game.  Check out the rest of my bowl predictions by viewing this page.  Also, be sure to see who Brandon Lee and Jack Jones have picked to win the Sugar Bowl.

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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