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Super Bowl Line Movement
 The New England Patriots have been a heavy public
favorite most of the season, but the New York Giants are
the team getting the public’s attention in Super Bowl
XLII. Because the Patriots have lost five straight games
against the number as favorites of 13 points or more,
and because the Giants were able to play the Pats to
within three points in the last week of the regular
season, when the public saw an opening line of +13.5,
they jumped on the Giants. The line has since moved to
-12 in favor of New England, much to the delight of
Patriots’ backers. Currently, some
online sportsbooks
are listing the line as low as -11.
Bodog Sportsbook is one such online book that is
doing so. According to
Sportsbook.com, which currently lists the Patriots
as -12 favorites, 82% of the public’s money is going on
the Giants with just over a week to go before the big
game. We urge you not to fall into the normally
dangerous trap of making hasty decisions with your bets.
Remember that each of the last two
Super Bowl
spread winners have been the favored team and the
public could be overlooking some key details.
The action on the total is a little more balanced but
still lopsided. Oddsmakers opened betting on Super Bowl
XLII with the total set at 55.5 points. The number has
since dropped to 53.5 with 66% of the public taking the
under despite a combined score of 73 points in the week
17 meeting between these teams. The public’s impulse to
climb on board the under is also somewhat interesting as
most generally it is the over that the public falls in
love with in Super Bowls.
Also, in case you’re interested, 91% of the
money line NFL
betting has gone down on the New York Giants. Do these
people really think the G-Men have a shot or are they
just fishing? It is not surprising to see more action on
the underdog on the money line as the odds are much
better. Our guess is that many who bet the Giants on the
point spread are also making a smaller wager on them on
the money line.
If you’re looking for a house to bet the big game, they
don’t get any better than
Sportsbook.com and
Bodog Sportsbook. If you’re looking to take the
underdog Giants, you can bet them at
Sportsbook.com at +12. If you like the favored
Patriots, bet them at -11 at
Bodog Sportsbook.
For more insight into
Super Bowl odds and the mindset of the oddsmakers
when setting them, check out Jimmy’s
Super Bowl
handicapping article.
January 25th, 2007
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