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Manning v. Brady Super Bowl Props

The game of football simply doesn’t break down in such a way that the two quarterbacks go head-to-head. Indirectly, yes they compete against each other, but it’s not a mano-a-mano battle like we see with cover corners and wideouts, or along the line with a D-lineman vs. one of the O-line.

But they do compete and with the magic of Super Bowl prop bets you can wager on them in a head-to-head format. Who will outdo the other on the stats sheet? Can Eli Manning hang in and answer whatever Tom Brady delivers for his side?

Let’s look at the prop bets pitting this year’s two quarterbacks against each other and see which way bettors are leaning.


1) Most Completions
Eli Manning +5.5 (-125)
Tom Brady -5.5 (-105)

Brady’s legendary accuracy is playing a role in the wagering on this prop, as the betting public are backing him at a clip of 80%, with baby brother Manning picking up the scraps at 20%. But Manning backers are getting 5.5 completions to work with before either pivot even takes their first snap…that’s enticing, but obviously still not enough when you’re going head-to-head with arguably the best QB of his generation.

Worth Noting: In his three previous Super Bowl appearances, Tom Brady only had more pass completions than his counterpart once. In Super Bowl 38 vs. Carolina, Brady recorded 32 completions to the 16 tossed by Carolina’s Jake Delhomme. Both Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner outdid Brady in this category in their matchups.


2) Most Pass Attempts
Eli Manning +2.5 (-115)
Tom Brady -2.5 (-115)

Interestingly, Eli Manning is holding his own in this category. He is receiving 54% of the volume so far on this prop play. We have to believe the thinking behind those wagers is that the Giants will fall behind, which means they’ll have to rely on the passing game more than the running game, resulting in Eli having to drop back more often.
When you combine the wagering results from this prop to the one above (Most Completions), you get a picture of how bettors feel this game might play out. While they think Manning will attempt more passes, they don’t believe he’ll end the day with more completions.

Worth Noting: In previous Super Bowls, Brady has thrown the ball more than the other QB one time, and again, that was vs. Carolina, in which he recorded 48 pass attempts to Delhomme’s 33.


3) Most Touchdown Passes
Eli Manning +1.5 (-185)
Tom Brady -1.5 (+150)

Manning is receiving a +1.5 in this prop, which when you think about it, is quite a healthy head start, considering how many TD passes QBs throw in a typical game. It’s hard to get away from the Brady mystique, well deserved as it is, and that shows in the betting numbers. Only 26% of bettors have found the +1.5 with Manning to be attractive enough to put up their money behind it, with 74% backing Brady. The fact the New England offensive captain broke the all-time TD passing mark this year has obviously helped.

Worth Noting: Brady would not have cashed this ticket for any of his backers in his previous three Super Bowl appearances. He threw one less TD than Donovan McNabb, tied Jake Delhomme with three apiece and also split with Kurt Warner at one each.


4) Player to Throw First Touchdown Pass
Eli Manning +180
Tom Brady -240

The underdog is getting enough action in this one to keep things very interesting when either team has the ball in the first quarter (and perhaps well beyond). Manning has received 42% of the action so far, as his recent performance, particularly in the playoffs, appears to have inspired confidence. And the fact this isn’t a wager dependent on Manning outdueling Brady over the course of an entire game, makes it attractive. Brady is still the favorite amongst the betting public with 58% of the action.

Worth Noting: In Brady’s three previous Super Bowl starts, he threw the first TD pass of the game in two of those appearances.

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January 25th, 2008