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2009 Super Bowl Betting Guide: Trends

Trends can be an important part of who you pick when you bet on the Super Bowl between the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers this year.  While no one aspect of the game is going to give you the total picture of who to bet on, trends will show you some of a team’s particular tendencies.  Depending on how important those tendencies are, they can be helpful in making Super Bowl predictions.  Below are a few of the trends that I have identified as being the most important for this year’s Super Bowl.  Keep in mind that all of this information is just one small piece of building a total picture for handicapping the Super Bowl.  There are still several factors to consider, and trends can be a little misleading at times because you better believe that the sportsbooks are aware of them as well.  All records provided are against the spread (ATS) or dealing with the total (Over/Under).

ATS Trends – Pittsburgh
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their previous 4 playoff games as a favorite.
The Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

ATS Trends – Arizona
The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their previous 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points.

Over/Under Trends – Pittsburgh
The Over is 7-1 in the Steelers last 8 playoff games as a favorite.
The Over is 12-2 in the Steelers previous 14 playoff games.
The Over is 6-1 in the Steelers last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.

Over/Under Trends – Arizona
The Over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games after scoring 30+ points in their previous game.
The Over is 38-13 in the Cardinals previous 51 games as an underdog.
The Over is 19-7 when the Cardinals play a team with a winning record.

While these are short-term trends, they give you a decent picture of how each team has done recently against he spread and with the total.  There isn’t an overwhelming ATS trend that sticks out to me, as both teams have fared pretty well in their recent outings.  It is interesting to note that all of the trends dealing with the total, for both teams, are in favor of the Over in the Super Bowl.  Before you jump on the Over 46.5 in Sunday’s game, remember that there are several other factors that you need to consider in the game.  Bet on the Super Bowl.

There are also trends called situational trends, which look a similar situations from the past to try to predict the outcome of a future game.  Situational trends are considered slightly more valuable than regular ATS trends, simply because they are pulling from a much larger pool of data, and history tends to repeat itself in sports.

Situational Trends Favoring the Arizona Cardinals
Play against a favorite of 3.5-10 points (Steelers) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.   This trend is 104-59 since 1983 in the NFL (63.8%)

Situational Trends Favoring the Pittsburgh Steelers
Play against any team (Cardinals) off of an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season.  This trend is 116-64 over the past 5 years in the NFL (64.4%).

Play against underdogs (Cardinals) with a poor scoring defense (those allowing 24+ points per game) after scoring 30+ points on offense in their previous game.  This trend is 39-19 over the last 5 years (67.2%).

These are a lot of numbers to digest, and it’s hard to determine which ones are really valuable to picking the winner in the Super Bowl this year.  We offer Super Bowl picks for this year’s game to help your Super Bowl betting.  We also have a comparative Super Bowl odds page that can help you find the best point spread on the game for whichever team you take.

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:

• 2009 Super Bowl Odds
• 2009 Super Bowl Betting: Futures
• Super Bowl Betting Recap
• 2009 Super Bowl Odds: Looking Back
• 2009 Super Bowl Picks

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