2011 Tampa Bay Rays Predictions
The Tampa Bay Rays have managed to best perennial powers New York and Boston for first place in the AL East two of the last three years. The Rays, however, will have their work cut out for themselves as they try to defend their 2010 division title without Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano and Matt Garza. Veterans Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez have been brought in to help cushion the blow, but their best baseball is clearly behind them.
Pitching: Losing Garza to the Cubs hurts in the short term, but the Rays are hoping the package of prospects they got for him will pay off down the road. Tampa Bay should still have a solid starting rotation with southpaw sensation David Price leading the unit. He went 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA last season, and many believe what we saw from him in 2010 is just the tip of the ice berg.
Wade Davis is an All-Star in the making and could reach that status as soon as this season. A rough 11-game stretch, during which he posted a 2-8 record with a 5.90 ERA, kept him from a truly remarkable season. He was 10-2 with a 3.30 ERA in his other starts.
James Shields has gobbled up over 200 innings each of the last four seasons, but he must be better in 2010, especially with Garza moving on. The 5.18 ERA he posted last year just isn’t going to cut it. Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson should round out the rotation. The Rays will be in business if Niemann can be the guy that went undefeated through his first 12 starts and not the guy that carried a 7.69 ERA in the second half of the season.
There is plenty of excitement surrounding Hellickson, the Minor League Player of the Year. He was 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA in limited duty with Tampa Bay last year.
While the starting rotation should be solid, the Rays could really be exposed in the bullpen where none of last season’s top six relievers remain. This is unfortunate considering Tampa’s pen led the AL with 51 saves and a 3.33 ERA a season ago.
Lineup: Tampa Bay’s lineup won’t be the same without Crawford and Pena. Now, it will be up to Evan Longoria to carry an even bigger load. Longoria hit .294 with 22 jacks and 104 RBIs last season and plays a Gold Glove third base. Longoria’s numbers at the plate, however, could decrease with less protection in the batting order. First baseman Dan Johnson, for example, won’t be able to match the 30-plus home runs and 100-plus RBIs that Pena put up year after year. Shortstop Reid Brignac and second baseman Sean Rodriguez should join Longoria and Johnson on the infield. Neither is better than an average stick but both field the ball well.
Ben Zobrist, B.J. Upton, Desmond Jennings and Johnny Damon will see most of the action in the three outfield spots. While Damon doesn’t run like he used to, the other three have all proven they can steal bases with regularity. Zobrist and Upton combined for 65 swipes in 2010. Jennings had 37 at triple-A Durham and has averaged 66 thefts per 162 minor league games.
Catcher John Jaso is a candidate to bat leadoff. He did so as the starting catcher 39 times a season ago, but the Rays were only 19-20 in those games. That may be reason for concern for a team that won 96.
Matt Joyce is a quality DH, who has put up some big numbers in limited at bats. In fact, he has 25 home runs, 80 RBIs and 74 walks in just 490 career plate appearances. Unfortunately for Joyce, Ramirez figures to get most of the at bats at DH.
Prediction – 3rd Place AL East: The losses of guys like Crawford, Pena and Garza will be too much to overcome to win a third division title in four years, especially considering the way Crawford now bolsters the Boston lineup. MLB odds makers have listed the Rays at +800 to win the AL East.
