Texas at Missouri Spread

The No. 21 Texas Longhorns travel to face the Missouri Tigers this Saturday. This is their first road game in over a month. This series has been a pretty one-sided affair as the Longhorns have won six straight over the Tigers since the turn of the new millennium. In their last meeting in 2009, Texas dominated the Tigers 41-7.

According to the Las Vegas oddsmakers,  Texas is a 1-point favorite over Missouri and a total set of 58.5 points.

Missouri

Following a disappointing 42-39 loss to Baylor last Saturday, Missouri might be one of the best teams in the Nation to have a losing record. They have a record of 4-5 and 2-4 at the Big 12 Conference. Four of their five losses have come by 10 points or less and their fate on the bowl will be decided when they face Texas Longhorns this week and Texas Tech and Kansas over the final two weeks.

Despite exploding for 25 points in the fourth quarter after trailing 28-10 after 3 quarters, the Tigers still lost because they allowed Baylor to rack up a school record of 697 total yards behind Robert Griffin’s three touchdowns and 406 passing yards. The Tigers were able to rack up 578 yards of their own, including 325 passing yards and three touchdowns from James Franklin. Henry Josey rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns as well, but it was too late.

Josey has played excellently for this team, leading the Big 12 in rushing with 1,149 yards on 8.6 yards/carry and nine touchdowns. Quarterback James Franklin is having a solid season as well, throwing for 2,195 yards with 16 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing with 599 yards and a team-high 10 touchdowns. Missouri ranks 10th in the country in total offense with 500.0 yards/game, but just 90th in total defense allowing 416.3 yards/game. They give up 148.6 yards/game rushing, and their ability to stop the run will go a long way in determining the outcome Saturday.

Texas

The Longhorns opened the season with a four game winning streak. Texas would go on to lose to then-No. 3 Oklahoma and then-No. 6 Oklahoma State. They have responded nicely since then, picking up a pair of dominating blowout home wins over Kansas (43-0) and Texas Tech (52-20). They are 6-2 and 3-2 in the Big 12 conference. The Longhorns will be hitting the road Saturday for the first time since a 37-14 victory at Iowa State on October 1st.

With their win over the Red Raiders they have become bowl eligible after missing the post season last year. They outgained Texas Tech by nearly 200 yards on the game behind a season-high 439 rushing yards. Freshman Joe Bergeron led the way with 191 yards and three touchdowns. Fozzy Whitaker chipped in 83 rushing yards and two scores against one of the worst run defenses in the nation.

This team ranks 30th in the country in total offense with 437.2 yards/game, including 10th in rushing with 246.4 yards/game. They are also 15th in total defense allowing just 310.8 yards/game, and their play on this side of the ball has been the biggest reason for their turnaround. Texas has been winning in spite of a passing offense of 190.8 yards/game that ranks a terrible 89th in the land. David Ash is their starting quarterback, and he is completing 61.9 percent of his passes for just 740 yards with three touchdowns to five interceptions.

Betting Trends

Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Tigers. However, they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.

Missouri is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game, but only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.