Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Line

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This Sunday the Houston Texans will take their AFC-best record on the road in a division showdown against the Tennessee Titans. The Texans had little trouble beating the Titans earlier this season, as they won 38-14 at home. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST at LP Field and will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers currently have Houston listed as a 6-point road favorite with the total set at 47 points.

Why Houston Will Cover:

For a second straight week the Texans found a way to pull out a victory in overtime. Just one week after defeating the Jaguars 43-37 in extra time, Houston rallied to beat the Lions 34-31 on Thanksgiving Day. The Texans improved to 10-1 overall and 7-3-1 ATS on the season. A lot like the Falcons in the NFC, Houston has shown the ability to find a way to win even when they aren’t playing their best football.

Houston certainly can’t be happy with the way they have played the past couple of weeks and a game against the Titans figures to allow them to get back on track. Tennessee won’t be playing with much confidence after they returned from their bye week with a 19-24 loss at Jacksonville. That was a game the Titans desperately needed to have if they were going to make a push at a Wild Card spot.

While some might be worried about laying points on a team who is coming off back-to-back overtime games in a span of five days, that shouldn’t be a factor with Houston having nine days off since that win over Detroit. Earlier this season the Texans returned from their bye week with a 21-9 win over the Bills as a 10.5-point favorite. Houston is 4-1-1 ATS in games where they are favored by less than a touchdown this season and the only loss came against one of the top teams in the league in Green Bay. Nine of their 10 wins this season have come by at least 6 points.

Why Tennessee Will Cover:

The Titans have shown the ability to win games at home that they aren’t expected to, which is certainly something you have to take into consideration when you are getting close to a touchdown in a division game. Tennessee upset the Lions 44-41 as a 3.5-point underdog and later beat the Steelers 26-23 as a 5.5-point dog.

If you look back at the first meeting between these two teams you will see that Tennessee actually outgained the Texans 325 to 297 in total yards. Houston scored 17 points off of three turnovers, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. If you take away those mistakes you are looking at a 21-14 ballgame.

The key to any Tennessee victory is the production they get out of running back Chris Johnson. When he gets it going this team can hang in there with any team in the league. Johnson tormented the Texans for 141 yards on 25 carries. Given how the Texans defense has struggled of late (68 points in their last two games), you have to like Johnson’s chances of having another big game.

The other thing you have to factor into this game is that Houston could easily be overlooking the Titans with a huge showdown against New England on deck next week. The winner of that game will more than likely end up with the home-field advantage.

Houston is just 4-14 ATS over their last 18 road games vs a team who features a defense that is allowing 350 or more total yards of offense per game.

About the Author: Steve will be the first to tell you that College Football is his passion, but he enthusiastically follows the NFL, NBA, College Hoops, and Major League Baseball. Get started today with a premium package from Steve Janus!
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