Toledo v. Central Michigan Football Odds & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on November 9, 2009

The Toledo Rockets head to Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan to take on the Central Michigan Chippewas Wednesday night in a MAC West on ESPN 2 showdown. Toledo will be looking to rebound from back-to-back losses to hand Central Michigan its first conference defeat of the season. The Rockets just may be poised to pull off the upset considering that they played the Chippewas to a 1-point game as a underdog last season. This series could not be any closer with both teams knotted at 17-17-3 all time, but the books are expecting a blowout by the Chippewas, listing Central Michigan as a 15.5-point favorite.

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At 4-5 with three games to play, a winning season and a bowl bid are still possible and that’s what the Rockets will be shooting for. The QB situation has been a nightmare with injuries to Austin Dantin and Aaron Opelt. Opelt returned to the lineup against Miami Ohio last game but struggled. I expect a much better performance with Toledo’s bye week giving him extra time to treat his shoulder and to get additional reps. Even with all the QB problems, the Rockets are still averaging 29.6 points per game on 441 yards of total offense.

We can’t really expect the offense to be a well-oiled machine at this point with all the adjustments it’s had to make with three different quarterback seeing action. That means that the defense is going to have to play, perhaps, its best game of the year to pull off the upset Wednesday. That means that Toledo is going to have to try to find a way to contain Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour, highly regarded as the league’s best player. Three-time first-team all-MAC selection defensive back Barry Church will do his part. Church is in the top ten in the MAC in tackles (82) with 7.5 of them for a loss. He also has one interception and three blocked kicks. While, Church will do his part to make big plays, sometimes the best defense is a good ball control offense. While Toledo prefers to pass, it is a solid running team, averaging 144 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. The winning strategy could be to grind this one out with DaJuane Collins and Adonis Thomas to keep the high-powered CMU offense off the field. It is worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. If you like the Rockets to keep this one within the number, bet Toledo at +15.5 at Bookmaker.

We know about the high-powered Chippewa offense, averaging 50.7 points per game at home and 30.6 points per game in all games this season , but the key to Central Michigan’s success has been improved defensive play. Last season, the defense gave up 30.2 points on 423.8 yards of offense and those numbers are down to 16.9 points on 339.6 yards this season. The Chippewas have been getting stops this season and that is huge as it allows the offense to get more opportunities to score.

Now about that offense. Senior quarterback Dan LeFevour is running the show again, throwing for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns and running for 548 yards and nine more scores. The offensive line was a concern heading into the year, but it has only allowed 10 sacks in nine games. Plus, LeFevour is elusive enough to avoid rushes that would plant most QB’s on their back sides. It is worth noting that the Chippewas are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. If you like the Chipps to keep right on rolling in the MAC with a blowout win at home Wednesday night, bet Central Michigan at -15.5 at Bookmaker.

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