2011 Toronto Blue Jays Predictions
The Blue Jays exceeded expectations in 2010, winning 85 games in their first season without Roy Halladay. Unfortunately, those 85 victories were only good for fourth place in the loaded AL East.
The Blue Jays haven’t played postseason baseball since winning it all in 1993. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals have experienced longer droughts. While the struggles of these three teams coincide with their constant rebuilding, the Jays’ drought has more to do with playing in baseball’s toughest division. Toronto, however, has been more eager to make changes lately, moving Vernon Wells a year after moving Halladay.
Pitching: The Jays missed Halladay in 2010 as their starters ranked 21st in ERA (4.30). Shaun Marcum’s 3.64 ERA was best on the team. Unfortunately, the Milwaukee Brewers will be the team enjoying his talents in 2011. Even without Marcum, the Jays are excited about a rotation centered around Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil.
Morrow went 10-7 with a 4.49 ERA last season. Romero finished 14-9 with a 3.73 ERA. Cecil went 15-7 with an ERA of 4.22.
Kyle Drabek, the centerpiece of the Halladay deal, could put himself on the map this year. Plus, the Jays remain hopeful that Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch can return to their pre-injury forms.
While I’m no Kevin Gregg fan, he did do a solid job in the closer role last year. It may be asking too much for Octavio Dotel, who had a 4.08 ERA for three teams last season, to be a reliable option in the ninth.
Lineup: The Toronto offense, which led the majors in home runs with 257 in 2010, will inevitably take a step back without Wells. The Jays traded the face of the franchise to the Los Angeles Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. Napoli has since been shipped off to Texas in exchange for reliever Frank Francisco. The Jays will no doubt miss the 30-home run, 100-RBI potential of Wells.
Toronto still boasts the bat of Jose Bautista, who led the bigs with 54 jacks in 2010. He also tallied 124 RBIs. I can’t imagine him matching those numbers without as much protection in the lineup this season.
Toronto has been one of the worst running teams in the AL the last two years. That’s why the Jays are excited about the addition of Rajai Davis. After stealing 41 bases in 2009, Davis exploded for 50 thefts for Oakland in 2010.
The Jays are counting on second baseman Aaron Hill to return to his 2009 All-Star form. He fell off big time last season, hitting just .205 with 10 less home runs and 40 fewer RBIs.
Toronto will also have to find places for Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind, who both hit more than 20 bombs last season.
J. P. Arencibia, Travis Snider and Yunel Escobar have the potential to be solid contributors as well.
Prediction – 5th Place AL East: I just don’t see the Blue Jays being as deadly at the plate as they were a year ago without Wells. If that is indeed the case, it will put more pressure on a pitching staff that is without a dominant starter. Not having Gregg in the ninth figures to sting a little as well. The Jays will battle the O’s for fourth place, and I have Toronto coming up a little short this time. MLB odds makers have listed the Blue Jays at +1500 to win the AL East.
