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UFC 71 Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd

Rarely if ever can a fighter regain that invincible aura, that almost divine resonance with the fans, once he is physically beaten down in the ring. After a fighter tastes defeat, generally the most they can continue to hope for is respect for bouncing back. Perhaps he’ll get a chance to avenge the loss and obtain redemption of some sort, but that indestructible status is gone so long as the world of mixed martial arts remembers that one time he was destroyed by another man. Nonetheless, Chuck Liddell currently entertains an air of immortality topped only by the great Fedor Emelianenko. “The Iceman” has defied conventional knowledge and achieved mythic status among fight fans, despite having lost convincingly to three different fighters in the past, because his subsequent victories over his former foes have been so impressive, so overwhelmingly one-sided, that they render the defeats almost unfathomable. There is of course one blemish which Liddell has yet to remedy, and that is his 2003 TKO defeat at the hands of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. A rematch between these two has obvious significance insofar as it represents a chance for the UFC champion and sure-fire Hall of Famer to erase any images of vulnerability that endure in the collective conscience of the MMA world. But in that sense, this fight is no different than Liddell’s rematches with Randy Couture or Jeremy Horn. However, I would suggest that this fight has added importance and is distinguishable from those fights for one important reason: Jackson gave Liddell the worst beating “The Iceman” has most likely experienced in his life. That is not to say that the Pride Final Conflict match-up was not a competitive fight. It was a great fight, and Liddell got his shots in. But as the fight drew to a close and Rampage mercilessly pounded away at Liddell’s midsection, Chuck was visibly a beaten man. This was so apparent that his corner man and trainer John Hackleman was forced to throw in the towel—a rarity in mixed martial arts—and you can be sure that would not have happened unless Hackleman was positive his man absolutely could not continue.

So that was four years ago. Liddell got it handed to him, but he has since run through the UFC Light Heavyweight division, and he has looked untouchable in the process. Jackson, by contrast, struggled against some of the elite Pride competition before recently re-establishing himself as a top dog in the division with a big win against Matt Lindland and a stoppage against Marvin Eastman in his UFC debut. At this point in their respective careers, each fighter has seen all there is to see in MMA, and each has faced the very best the world has to offer, including each other, in prime time, main-event-caliber showdowns. Therefore, neither fighter is in for any surprises come Saturday in Las Vegas. Likewise, neither fighter should be short on motivation. Liddell has the aforementioned chance to repair his last defeat, and Jackson has another shot to finally hold a title in one of the world’s premiere fighting organizations.

Unlike some of Liddell’s recent competition, “Rampage” does not represent a real clash of styles. Like Chuck, Quinton likes to bang it out on his feet, and you can expect the majority of this fight to take place with the two standing up. Having said that, Jackson will definitely not pass up the chance to flatten “The Iceman” with one of his patented slams and work some ground and pound. It will be interesting to see if Chuck comes out throwing leg kicks as Dana White had indicated he was supposed to in his first match with Quinton. It is not a strategy Liddell has employed in recent fights (which was to be expected, seeing as he has faced several wrestlers as of late, and the leg kick might make him vulnerable to the takedown), but it might be an effective way to slow down the explosive “Rampage.” Indeed, Liddell has stated in the past that one of his most preferred strikes is the low leg kick. Whatever strategy the champion employs, it will be one that the challenger has the tools to deal with. Jackson has faced the world’s most versatile strikers, and he has repeatedly proven himself to possess exception strike defense.

For these reasons, I do not believe that strategies or styles or any other tangible factor will determine the outcome of this fight. The winner of this match will be he who is able to impose his will from the opening bell—who is the crisper striker, the loosest on the feet, and who is, in general, more on his A game.

With the UFC odds on Liddell coming in at around -175 to Jackson at +135, the value is in “Rampage.” Sure Jackson has had a few ups and downs since his victory over Liddell four years ago, but his recent string of victories demonstrates that he still has the tools to compete at the highest level. Liddell has been dominant as of late, but not against anyone who can survive with him standing up. Not only can Jackson survive, he can and has out struck Chuck in the past. Liddell has had the luxury of sitting back against fighters desperate for a takedown who were using strikes only as a set-up mechanism. “Rampage” will be throwing bombs in order to take Chuck’s head off, not to open a window for a single leg. Our UFC predictions show he will back Chuck up with that power, force him around the ring, and ultimately slug out the decision victory.

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