Underrated NBA Teams
Every NBA odds makers’ biggest weapon is public perception. The books seek to use public perception of teams against bettors when they set lines. In this article, I’ll take a look at some of the most underrated NBA teams to bet on recently.
The first team we have to discuss is the most underrated in all of the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder are only 7-33 on the season (at the time of this article) so naturally the public perception of them is that they are a bad team and the public does not like to bet on bad teams. The Thunder started the season just 4-8-1 against the spread and that likely soured any NBA betting backers. But handicapping the NBA is all about what have you done for me lately. The Thunder are 21-6 against the spread over their last 27 games and the books have been making a killing on them as the public has continued to fade a team a team perceived as the worst in the NBA. Oklahoma City has been an absolute phenomenal home bet as it is a perfect 8-0 against the spread in its last eight home games. Outside the numbers, while the Thunder don’t have a lot of depth and are very young, Kevin Durant is living up to every bit of the hype. The second-year pro is averaging 23.7 points per game and 6.2 rebounds per contest. He has been sensational recently in wins over the Bulls and the Knicks posting double-double’s in each of those contests.
While some bettors are starting to get hip to the Bucks, they remain one of the most underrated NBA team in this early part of the season. Milwaukee was only 26-56 in the 2007-08 season with a 35-47 against the spread mark. Bettors were all ready to fade this team but the Bucks have been a money wager. NBA picks on the Bucks are 25-14 against the spread this season and while Milwaukee is just 8-15 on the road, it is 14-7-2 ATS in those games. I expect Milwaukee to continue to be a profitable team to back throughout the season as the Bucks have a better team than most people realize. They have six players averaging in double figures with Olympic Gold Medalist Michael Redd leading the way with 20.9 points per game. Also, small forward Richard Jefferson has proven to be a nice addition and is averaging 17.2 points per game. With a heady point guard in Luke Ridnour, who has dished to Redd the way he used to dish to Ray Allen in Seattle, and Andrew Bogut on the interior, the Bucks have a nice nucleus to build around for the future. This team has a shot at the postseason.
The Minnesota Timberwolves also make my list because of how they have been playing lately. This team only has 11 wins on the season, but it has come on strong over the last few weeks. Since December 26th, the Timberwolves have won seven of their last 10 games and are 7-2-1 against the spread during that span. While Minnesota is only 5-13 on the road this season, odds makers have been giving the Wolves enough points to have an 11-7 against the spread mark. This team will continue to improve as the season goes along as it is young and talented. It likely won’t make much of a splash in the win/loss column for NBA standings sake, but it figures to produce a whole lot more against the spread winners. Al Jefferson has established himself as the star of this team, averaging a double-double with 22.2 points per game and 10.4 rebounds. The young Randy Foye has played well at the guard position. I see a guy like Mike Miller, who has shown the ability to score in his previous NBA stops, becoming a bigger part of the offense as the season goes on.
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