Vanderbilt Football Predictions

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The Vanderbilt Commodores are clearly headed in the right direction under second-year head coach James Franklin. He led the Commodores to a bowl game in his first season, though they would lose to Cincinnati 24-31 in the Liberty Bowl. Of their six wins in 2011, five came by 23 points or more. Vanderbilt came very close to pulling off a ton of upsets as it lost to Georgia, Arkansas, Florida and Tennessee all by six points or less.

I expect the Commodores to capitalize on some of those upset opportunities in Franklin’s second year on the job in ’12. That’s because they return a veteran roster with 15 starters and 43 lettermen coming back. If there was one deep sleeper in the SEC East, this would certainly be it. Here is a look at their personnel on both sides of the ball, as well as my prediction on where Vanderbilt finishes in the East division.

Offense

The offense mustered 26.7 points and 339 total yards per game last season. Vanderbilt featured a run-heavy attack that produced 164 rushing yards per game and 4.3/carry. With eight returning starters on this side of the ball, I expect improved numbers from the offense in ’12.

Senior QB Jordan Rodgers returns after completing 50.0 percent of his passes for 1,524 yards with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The brother of Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, Jordan also finished second on the team in rushing (420 yards, four TD). He took against Georgia and would make the final seven starts of the season. Rodgers should put up impressive numbers in his senior season.

Senior RB Zac Stacy (1,193 yards, 5.9/carry, 14 TD) returns after earning second-team All-SEC honors last season. He is a load, and he’ll be joined in the backfield by junior Warren Norman, who took a medical redshirt last year. Norman was the SEC Freshman Player of the Year in ’10 after rushing for 1,242 yards on 5.6/carry. This is arguably the best RB tandem in the SEC.

The receiving corps returns three starters, including second-team All-SEC WR Jordan Matthews (41 receptions, 778 yards, five TD). Also back is sophomore WR Chris Boyd (31, 473, eight TD) and junior WR Jonathan Krause (23, 171). Senior TE Austin Monohan has made 14 starts in his three years here and he’s now finally healthy.

Up front, the Commodores welcome back three starters and 60 career starts along the offensive line. The three they have coming back are senior RG Josh Jelesky, senior LG Ryan Seymour and junior LT Wesley Johnson. Despite the loss of third-team All-SEC RG Kyle Fischer, this unit should be improved aver allowing 28 sacks a year ago.

Defense

The biggest reason Vanderbilt was competitive in 11 of its 13 games last season was the fact that its defense yielded just 21.6 points and 323 total yards per game. The Commodores return seven starters on this side of the ball, but they do lose their top three tacklers from ’11 which could hurt.

Despite the loss of DE Tim Fugger (33 tackles, 8 sacks), who was selected in the seventh round by the Indianapolis Colts, the defensive line should be improved. That’s because this unit returns four players who combined to make 35 starts last season. They are junior DE Walker May (30 tackles, 3 sacks), senior DT Colt Nichter (26 tackles, 1 sack), senior DT Rob Lohr (41 tackles, 11.5 for loss) and senior DE Johnell Thomas (26 tackles, 2 sacks).

The biggest loss on this side of the ball is second-team All-SEC LB Chris Marve (91 tackles, 8.5 for loss), who was clearly the heart and soul of the defense last year. However, the linebacker corps returns its #4 and #6 tacklers in senior WLB Archibald Barnes (59 tackles, 4.5 for loss, six passes defended) and junior MLB Chase Garniham (51 tackles, 5.5 for loss). Also, senior SLB Tristan Strong (16 tackles) returns after starting four games before going out for the season with an injury last year.

The secondary parts ways with arguably its two best players in SS Sean Richardson (63 tackles, 6.5 for loss, one INT) and second-team All-American CB Casey Hayward (62 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 10 pass break-ups, seven INT), who was taken in the second round by the Green Bay Packers. The two returning starters are solid with junior FS Kenny Ladler (53 tackles, one INT) and senior CB Trey Wilson (30 tackles, eight pass break-ups, three INT) both back. Junior CB Andre Hal (21 tackles, one INT) and junior SS Javon Marshall (42 tackles, two INT) are ready to take on starting roles.

SEC East Prediction – 5th Place

It’s hard to pick a team with this much experience returning to finish this low in the SEC East. However, the SEC East is pretty deep this year with Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee all capable of winning the division. I could see the Commodores finishing as high as second in the East, but they simply don’t have the talent to match those four aforementioned teams. They could make some noise considering they avoid the top four teams from the West. They get South Carolina, Florida, Auburn and Tennessee at home, so there could be an upset or two in there. Vanderbilt also has winnable road games at Missouri, Kentucky and Ole Miss. I believe the Commodores can reach eight wins for the first time in more than a three decades, and they’ll certainly be going bowling under Franklin again in ’12.

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Ole Miss Rebels Kentucky Wildcats
Auburn Tigers Vanderbilt Commodores
Texas A&M Aggies Missouri Tigers

 

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