Washington State at BYU Spreads

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The BYU Cougars are set to host the Washington State Cougars this Thursday on opening night of the 2012 college football season. Washington State heads into the new season with a lot hype, despite finished 2011 with just a 4-8 overall record. The main reason for that is the addition of head coach Mike Leach, who took Texas Tech to 10 straight bowl games in his 10-year tenure at Lubbock. As for BYU, they are looking to build off a 10-3 campaign in 2011, which saw them end the year on an impressive 9-1 run.

This will be the first matchup between the two schools since BYU won at home over Washington State 50-36 back in 1990. Certainly a lot has changed since the last meeting, but oddsmakers seem to think a similar outcome could be in the works. BYU is currently favored by 13.5-points with the total set at an even 62 points.

Washington State:

The Cougars are hoping that Leach can turn this program around in a hurry. As bad as last year’s 4-8 record may seem, it was actually a huge step in the right direction. In the previous three seasons Washington State managed to win a total of just five games.

With Leach calling the plays, it’s easy to see why Washington State’s fans are excited about where he can take an offense that excelled in 2011. Last year, the Cougars managed 29.8 on 422 yards of total offense. It was the first time since 2007 that they were able to average more than 20 points and 400 yards of total offense.

The Cougars welcome back seven starters on offense,  led by senior quarterback Jeff Tuel and one of the premiere wide outs in college football in junior Marquess Wilson. Tuel is coming off an injury-plagued 2011 season, which saw him make just two starts. He figures to excel in Leach’s system, which in turn should lead to an even bigger season from Wilson, who led the team with 82 catches for 1,388 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Washington State also has to be excited about the direction the ground game is headed. The Cougars averaged 100 yards per game on the ground in 2011 behind freshman Rickey Galvin (602 yards, 5 TDs) and junior Carl Winston (442 yards, 4 TDs). With what looks like a solid group returning on the offensive line and the attention defenses will have to pay to the passing game, Galvin and Winston should only be better in 2012.

The big concern with the Cougars heading into the season, is a defense that has not been good for some time. Washington State allowed 31.8 points on 410 total yards per game. While they do get back 7 starters on the stop unit, I have a hard time seeing the defense improving much this year.

BYU:

Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has compiled a 66-24 record in eight seasons at BYU, including double-digit win seasons in five of the last six years. The Cougars are going to send out a veteran bunch in 2012, as they have 28 seniors and 14 starters coming back.

Offensively, BYU is really counting on senior quarterback Riley Nelson to finish his career with a big season. Nelson threw for 1,717 yards with 19 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, while also finishing third on the team with 392 yars on the ground. Nelson’s numbers might not seem all that impressive, but he didn’t make his first start until the sixth game of the year against San Jose St.

BYU also has a solid amount of talent coming back at the skill positions. While they lose leading rusher J>J. Di Luigi, they don’t feel like they will lose any ground with junior Michael Alisa taking over the starting job. The Cougars also have a couple of talented weapons returning in the passing game in junior Cody Hoffman (61 catches, 943 yards, 10 TDs) and sophomore Ross Apo (34 catches, 453 yards, 9 TDs).

Defensively, BYU gets back seven starters, including their top five tacklers from a year ago. The stop unit held opposing teams to just 20.4 ppg on 313 total yards. I do have some concerns with a secondary that loses arguably their two best players in corner Corby Eason and safety Travis Uale. We will find out just where the defensive backfield sits in the opener against Washington State.

Prediction:

I personally don’t like either team a ton against the spread. While Washington State should be improved under Leach and is showing a ton of value getting nearly two touchdowns, there’s a possibility the offense could take some time to fully reach their potential in a new system. Also, Washington State has not been very good on the road. They have lost six straight road openers by an average score of 44-17 and are 0-8 in non-conference road games since 2006. If I was going to make a play on this game, I would look to playing the OVER 62 points. BYU averaged 41.8 ppg over their final five regular season games, and should be able to come close to that number against a suspect Washington State defense. At the same time, I think Washington State will be able to move the ball through the air against BYU and should be able to manage somewhere in the vicinity of 30 points.

About the Author: Steve will be the first to tell you that College Football is his passion, but he enthusiastically follows the NFL, NBA, College Hoops, and Major League Baseball. Get started today with a premium package from Steve Janus!
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