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Week 12 College Football Handicapping Lesson

Written by Evan Altemus

After watching an entire Saturday of football, there was one distinct college football handicapping lesson to take away. Several games on each Saturday have very large college football point spreads. The common bettor immediately looks to take the large favorite. However, what is the best way to approach these games?

It just so happens that there were five primetime games on Saturday with point spreads of 16 points or more. USC, LSU, Missouri, Alabama, and Oklahoma State were all significant double digit favorites. As the night began, Stanford, Troy, and Mississippi State were all playing very good games as huge underdogs. In fact, Troy was leading 31-3 in the 2nd half and Stanford was tied with USC at halftime. However, as theses games progressed into the 2nd half, USC, LSU, Alabama, and Missouri all scored at will. These team’s offenses weren’t even slowed down. Alabama ended up covering the spread by 3 points, winning 32-7 as a 22 point favorite. Mississippi State’s offense wasn’t able to move the ball at all in the 2nd half, while Alabama gained yards in chunks and had several big plays. LSU, trailing 31-3 in the 2nd half, scored 30 points in the 4th quarter and won 40-31. However, they failed to cover the point spread by 8 points. USC was able to score 28 unanswered points in the 2nd half to take a convincing 4 touchdown lead with less than 2 minutes left in the game. However, Stanford was able to get a few plays that gained chunks of yards, leaving them at the 18 yard line with less than 10 seconds left on the clock. Coach Jim Harbaugh, in a strange decision, elected to kick a field goal to get some more points on the board. However, Pete Carroll, caught off guard, called a timeout to get the right personnel on the field. During the timeout, back-up quarterback Alex Loukas convinced Harbaugh to send the offense back onto the field in an attempt to score a touchdown. Consequently, Loukas was able to throw an 18 yard touchdown pass to end the game. The resulting score was 45-23, a 2 point cover for Stanford backers like myself. The other game mentioned above was the contest between Missouri and Iowa State. The Tigers offense was never stopped, as they put up 52 points to cover as a 26 point favorite. However, what exactly is the lesson to take away from these games?

All of these games proved why when doing college football betting one must be careful when taking significant double digit underdogs, especially when their opponents are ranked in the top ten. These teams are highly ranked and favored by several touchdowns for a reason. If they show up at all, then it is highly likely that a blowout will result. These teams usually have a powerful offense and/or a shutdown defense. In addition, they also may have a significant difference in athleticism all over the field. So what is the best way to handicap these games?

Most of the time, games with very high point spreads should be avoided, as it is usually luck of the draw trying to determine which team will cover. However, the only long-term successful way to approach games like this is to look for situations where a large favorite would be in a huge letdown spot. Troy/LSU was the only game that had a large favorite in a letdown spot. LSU was coming off of a very disappointing overtime loss to Alabama, in a game where they fought hard throughout. In addition, Troy is a good small conference which had already hung tough with BCS conference competition this season.

The best long term strategy with games featuring large spreads is to avoid them when making your college football picks, for the most part. However, the underdog is worth taking a look at if they are facing a large favorite in a letdown spot. The underdog must have shown the capability to play with tougher competition in previous games. Using this theory will provide the bettor several excellent opportunities while avoiding potential losses.

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