Football Picks: Wyoming at UNLV

Written by Jack Jones on November 13, 2008

There is a Mountain West Conference game being played on Thursday night and it’s the Wyoming Cowboys heading to Las Vegas to take on the UNLV Running Rebels. The Cowboys are trying to keep up the momentum after knocking off the Tennessee Volunteers last week in Knoxville, but that hasn’t stopped the football odds makers from listing UNLV as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 46.5.

The game following Phil Fulmer’s announcement that he was going to be leaving Tennessee after the season did not go well for the Vols, as Wyoming came into town as 27 point road underdogs but left with one of the most impressive upsets of the year with a 13-7 win. It was the second straight win and cover for for the Cowboys, and the SU winner in Wyoming games have also cashed at the pay window eight straight times. The win was impressive since the Cowboys outgained the Vols 266-219, and got an interception returned for a touchdown in the second frame that ended up being the winning score.

Wyoming isn’t the only team coming off an upset though as UNLV took down New Mexico last week, 27-20 even though they were six point underdogs on their home field. That stopped a five game losing streak for the Rebels even though they were outgained 370-258 in the contest. The key play turned out to be a touchdown UNLV scored off a blocked punt in the fourth quarter. Another key play came in the second quarter when New Mexico was driving but Quinton Porter picked a pass off and returned it 77 yards to set up a field goal.

This series has gone Wyoming’s way in recent matchups, as the Cowboys have won four straight games, but UNLV has covered against the spread the last two years. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog has cashed in four of the last six times.

Even though Wyoming is riding that two-game ATS win steak, this has not been a profitable team to back lately as they are 6-20-1 ATS over their last 27, 1-8 ATS the last nine times the team has taken to the road, and 4-23-1 ATS when playing conference games. The positive trends supporting the Cowboys are the 4-1 ATS run on Thursday nights and the 23-9 ATS run following a game they covered the spread. UNLV is on a 1-4 ATS run in the month of November, 5-15-1 ATS off of their last 21 straight up wins, 8-23 ATS against sub .500 teams, and 7-20 ATS after a game they covered the number.

When looking at the total, the OVER has gone 15-5 for Wyoming in the month of November, and 7-3 OVER when they play losing teams. UNLV has gone over in six of their last seven and four of their last five at home. In the series between these two teams, the OVER has cashed the last ten times these two teams have played each other.

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